Escher's Active Investment #01: Positive move, first sell too soon?

We started an investment experiment on June 12th, 2020, in which we will attempt to actively trade MIDU, a 3x leveraged ETF that emulates the behavior of the S&P 400 mid-cap stock index.  We  initialized this experiment with a hypothetical 1000$, with an allocation of 26 shares, assuming a price of 18.54$/share [482.04$] and 517.86$ as cash.

A bit unexpectedly, the MIDU made a move up today.  I initially guessed that it was going to go down, with the futures market early Monday morning suggesting so.  However, MIDU gained and kept gaining.  We decided on a one-share sell @ 19.80$, realizing a nice bit of gain.  But did we sell too soon?  If we want to maximize the potential gains, we need to be able to ride the swings, heavy swings.  The cost of attempting to maximize these gains is the increase in risk--the potential for loss or missed opportunity.  I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen day-to-day.


At the time of the trade, the balance sheet stood at:

   Equity: 495.00 $   [25 shares at 19.80$/share]
   Cash  : 537.66 $

 Index Performance:     Fund Performance:
  19.80/18.54            (495+537.66)/1000 
= 1.068                = 1.033


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